Volume 55, 2021Regular articles published in advance of the transition of the journal to Subscribe to Open (S2O). Free supplement sponsored by the Fonds National pour la Science Ouverte
|Page(s)||S2953 - S2968|
|Published online||02 March 2021|
Multi-stage emergency decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory and intuitionistic fuzzy number
School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, P.R. China
2 National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, P.R. China
3 National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Chengdu 611756, P.R. China
4 China Railway Design Corporation, Chengdu 610031, P.R. China
* Corresponding author: email@example.com
Accepted: 29 November 2020
Aiming at the problem where the dynamic adjustment of reference points under the impact of decision makers’ emotions may lead to different decision-making results, this research proposes a multi-stage emergency decision-making method with the emotion updating mechanism of decision makers. The method of setting dynamic reference points under the influence of decision-makers’ emotions is given in this study, and the scenario value of each stage of emergency is calculated by using cumulative prospect theory, so as to describe the emotion renewal mechanism of decision-makers. The scenario weights of each stage are calculated, and the prospect values of alternatives at each stage are calculated according to the prospect value, input costs and start-up time values of the alternatives. Furthermore, by giving a calculation method of the weight of each stage, the overall values of the alternatives are calculated and the ranking of the alternatives is given. Taking Sichuan Tibet emergency rescue in China as an case analysis, the scientific rationality of the theory proposed in this paper is verified.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 90B50 / 90C29 / 90C31
Key words: Emotion updating mechanism / multi-stage emergency decision-making / cumulative prospect theory / intuitionistic fuzzy number / dynamic reference point
© EDP Sciences, ROADEF, SMAI 2021
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