| Issue |
RAIRO-Oper. Res.
Volume 56, Number 6, November-December 2022
Recent developments of operations research and data sciences
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Page(s) | 4023 - 4033 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2022188 | |
| Published online | 30 November 2022 | |
Early-confinement strategy to tackling COVID-19 in Morocco; a mathematical modelling study
1
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques, University of Sultan Moulay Slimane, Beni-Mellal, Morocco
2
Laboratory of Mathematics and Population Dynamics-UMMISCO, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University, Marrakech, Morocco
* Corresponding author: elhail.kha@gmail.com
Received:
25
December
2021
Accepted:
22
October
2022
Morocco is among the countries that started setting up confinement in the early stage of the COVID-19 spread. Comparing the number of cumulative cases in various countries, a partial lock-down has delayed the exponential outbreak of COVID-19 in Morocco. Using a compartmental model, we attempt to estimate the mean proportion of correctly confined sub-population in Morocco as well as its effect on the continuing spread of COVID-19. A fitting to Moroccan data is established. Furthermore, we have highlighted some COVID-19 epidemic scenarios that could have happened in Morocco after the deconfinement onset while considering a different combination of preventive measures.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 92-10
Key words: COVID-19 / confinement / protective measures / compartmental models / basic reproduction number / fitting / backward bifurcation
© The authors. Published by EDP Sciences, ROADEF, SMAI 2022
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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